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Hong’s Theory of Social Bell Curves

I guess I haven’t told you about this theory yet, have I? :) It recently came up again in a conversation, so I might as well write it down here.

As grand as it might sounds, it’s a very informal analogy of a distribution curve to characteristics of a society, mostly used to compare a homogeneous and a diverse society. You all remember a typical distribution curve that looks like a bell in high school, right? In any distribution, you always talk about a mean and a standard deviation. The mean is a statistical average and the standard deviation is how far away the samples are from the mean. In case of bell-like curves, graphically the mean can be thought of as where the peak is and the standard deviation can be thought of as the “thickness” of the curve.

So, for a homogeneous society, the deviation would be small (the curve will be narrow) and for a diverse one, large. My observation and analogy is that when the deviation is small, there tends to be less samples in the extremities. And in converse, a diverse group will have more extremities. And the important thing to note is the extremities are on the both ends.

I find it quite useful and seems to apply quite well when comparing societies such as Korea and the United States. So, a very homogeneous country like Korea has a very small deviation and slightly higher mean, I guess. The force trying to keep the deviation to a certain limit, is very strong, so it is very stable with little change. It usually has a good base, translated to a slightly higher mean. What this means is that it has a fewer “geniuses”, along with less “sociopaths.” On the other hand, with a very diverse country such as the States, there are more “geniuses,” but as many “sociopaths” (e.g., serial killers).

I often use this to point out that there is no perfect society when people starts to argue about which is better or “advanced.” They are just different and one can be more successful than another in a certain situation, but not always and not for everyone.

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